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Thursday, June 18, 2009

USD - BEAR FLAG

uup / daily
looks like we're going to get on with beggaring the euros. imo the ecb must intervene before 1.60 (if they're not already), because during the last expansion phase we simply ate their lunch on capital goods exports.
usd status? we now know after the way everyone piled into dollars once they were good n spooked, that usd is still the undisputed heavyweight champ. i mean really, what else you gonna do? eleven carrier groups, a 200yr old constitution, a no default credit history and a vast middle class tax base with the best per capita productivity stats on the planet... no one else sportin' anything close to those advantages.

while interest rate differentials are the main drivers for leveraged fx profiteering (carry trade). its when the deleveraging side of the cycle arrives that you'll see the truth rear its head on the chart. saw the move up shut a lot of gold and eurocentric pieholes in a big hurry lol. current account? pftt, the fear mongering never really added up.. indirect bidders up the wahzoo then, indirect bidders up the wahzoo now. no amount of "yeah but" speculation can overcome the fact of what other central banks actually did and continue to do. its what you call proof positive, sportsfans. fed just silently let the unjustified slide go on, because hey, if the bric's are finally gonna grow a middle class, a weak dollar assures they'll do it to a large extent on our capital goods and services. inflation was coming with the expansion either way.

came across this in the ft lol. like any political entity, the eu will project as much relevance as possible. but they know what time it is. they're sitting on a no constitution, export dependent hodgepodge and about to get exchange rate worked by a grinning chicago pimp/politician. who's gotta pull at least a 10k dow out his ___ before the 2010 congressional races start (less than 10% of euros own stocks vs. 70% of americans)

edited a few times for overt arrogance and profanity, best i could do

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